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Mathematical models are shown to be useful for making qualitative predictions about …

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- The future of the HIV pandemic

The risk assessment approach described in this paper offers an alternative to scaremongering based on uncertain forecasts. The world health report 2002 has advocated bringing risk assessment into the heart of decisions about the allocation of resources in reducing the global burden of disease (32). A focus on risk may also help an effective response to the ongoing HIV pandemic.

Competing interests: none declared.


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