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Biology Articles » Biomathematics » New Model Predicts Long-term Survival Of Critically Ill Patients
The long term survival of critically ill patients may now be predicted,
using a new model which has been developed by Clinical Associate
Professor Ho and his co-investigators at Royal Perth Hospital and the
University of Western Australia, according to a recent publication.
The study used clinical and long term survival data of a
heterogenous group of 11,930 patients admitted to the Intensive Care
Unit at Royal Perth Hospital in Western Australia. This Intensive Care
Unit admits patients of all specialties and captures over 40% of all
critically ill patients in Western Australia.
The new model uses seven commonly collected clinical variables
within the first 5 days of a critical illness to estimate the long term
survival rate of critically unwell patients that come through the
Intensive Care Unit. The PREDICT model - Predicted Risk, Existing
Diseases, and Intensive Care Therapy, uses criteria such as age,
gender, co-morbidity, severity of illness and intensity of intensive
care therapy to predict a patient's likely long term survival up to 15
years after the onset of a critical illness.
This prognostic model suggests that age (50%) and co-morbidity (27%)
of a seriously ill patient has a much more profound discriminative
effect on a patient's long term survival rate, than the severity of the
acute illness (20%) itself.
This model extends the existing knowledge about the prognosis of
critically ill patients beyond five years and may provide a very useful
framework for clinicians, patients, and researchers when the long term
prognosis of a critically ill patient is considered.
Journal reference: Gold et al. Estimating Long-Term Survival of Critically Ill Patients: The PREDICT Model. PLoS ONE, 2008; 3 (9): e322.
Source: Public Library of Science. September 2008.
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