Tables
- Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Table 1

Correspondence between development stages and their relation with MSY.

method			categories
stock assessments	underexploited	moderately exploited	fully exploited	overfished and depleted	recovering
landing trends	undeveloped	developing	mature	senescent	recovering
relation to maximum production	well below it	approaching it	at or close to it	below it	coming back to it

Table 2

Situation by 2020 (Delgado et al. 2003).

(Apparent errors are caused by rounding of values. Fishmeal equivalent round weight: using a conversion factor of 5.)

						price difference (%)

scenarios	food fish supply (10⁶ t)	capture (10⁶ t)	aquaculture (10⁶ t)	fish meal (10⁶ t) (round weight)	consumption (kg per capita)	high-value species	low-value species	fishmeal
present situation (1997)	93	64	29	—	15.7	—	—	—
baseline scenario	130	76	54	39.5	17.1	15	6	18
50% faster aquaculture development rate	144	74	69	—	19.0	9	−12	42
if Chinese production was overestimated	123	69	53	—	16.1	16	6	21
with more efficient use of feeds in aquaculture	131	77	54	—	17.2	14	5	−16
50% slower aquaculture development rate	119	76	41	—	15.7	19	25	0
gradual resource depletion	108	53	55	—	14.2	69	35	134

Table 3

Trends in SOFIA 2002 for 2010–2030 and comparison with Fish 2020 predictions.

(All figures, in mt, have been rounded.)

^a Based on latest FAO statistics.

^b Aquatic animals other than reptiles or mammals, excluding quantities reduced in fishmeal and oil.

^c Fish 2020: most likely scenario (bold, in brackets) together with best and worst cases if available.

^d Calculated by the authors from total production minus aquaculture.

^e Calculated by the authors adding food fish to fishmeal production.

^f Calculated by the authors comparing food and non-food use.

^g Calculated by the authors multiplying fishmeal production forecasts by a factor of 5.

Table 4

Correspondence between the various future world scenarios.

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