The outbreaks of the spruce web-spinning sawfly
Cephalcia arvensis
in the Southern Alps are a good example of what may happen when
favourable climatic conditions interfere with the mechanism of the
induction of extended diapause, allowing an exponential growth of the
population and consequent damage to trees. This species, as many others
in this genus, is monophagous on
Picea and endemic to the spruce range in Eurasia, where outbreaks have been seldom recorded (
[37]).
Cephalcia
species generally show low fecundity and spreading of the cohort over
many years by mean of an extended diapause, which is induced by low
temperature at pupation time (
[5]). However, in the period 1985-1992 there was a sudden outbreak in the Southern Alps (Asiago and Cansiglio Plateaux -
Fig. 2),
during which the populations developed an annual life cycle and grew
exponentially, causing repeated defoliations, which ultimately caused
tree death over hundreds of hectares (
[6]).
The most likely reasons for such a change in the life cycle of the
insect have been explored through an analysis of the local climate,
which showed that the years preceding the outbreak were characterized
by an abnormally warm and dry weather during the feeding period of the
larvae. We hypothesized that favourable conditions promoted the
survival and speeded up the development, making it possible to pupate
when soil temperature was high enough to start pupation immediately,
skipping in this way from the extended diapause. Later, an experiment
showed that the soil threshold temperature for the induction of the
extended diapause was about 12°C (
[5]),
well below the values recorded in the forest at the beginning of the
outbreak. The sudden increase of the population density was not quickly
followed by that of natural enemies, which were unable to limit
population growth (
[6]).
It seems likely that the increase of the temperature in June and July
of 1983-85 is the major factor promoting the outbreaks, as they
occurred simultaneously at two sites at a distance of about 100 km,
through switching the insects to an annual generation.