table of contents 
In this paper the authors expand greatly on previous work by amalgamating …
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Table 1
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Evidence for density dependence using phenomenological time series data
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wAICc
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%DD
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Time series era
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q
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RW
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EX
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RL
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GL
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TL
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ΣwAICc
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High-density (1951–1964)
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10
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0.187
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0.039
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0.372
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0.383
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0.019
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77.4
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Low-density (1993–1999)
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21
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0.081
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0.025
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0.412
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0.380
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0.101
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89.3
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| Sample-size corrected Akaike weights (wAICc) and the number of yearly transitions (q) for density-independent models: random walk (RW), and exponential (EX), and density-dependent models: Ricker-logisitc (RL), Gompertz logistic (GL), and θ-logisitc (TL), of the population growth of southern elephant seals during the high-density era and low-density eras. The sum of the AICc weights for the density-dependent models represents the combined percentage support for density dependence (%DD). |
Table 2
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Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability
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Model
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ΔQAICc
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wQAICc
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k
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High density (1951–1964)
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 (age-t/t) p(age-t/t)
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0.000
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0.948
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38
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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5.820
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0.052
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29
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(t) p(age-t/t)
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19.140
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27
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(t) p(t)
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49.100
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22
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(.) p(t)
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122.780
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15
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Low density (1993–1999)
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(age-t/t) p(age-t/t)
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0.000
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0.999
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17
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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19.670
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13
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(t) p(age-t/t)
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72.570
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13
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(t) p(t)
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107.070
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9
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(.) p(t)
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112.770
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7
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| Effects of time (t), and age (age-juvenile/adult) on the probability of survival () and recapture (p) of southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (wQAICc), the relative change in AICc score (ΔQAICc), and number of parameters (k) based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.3664. |
Table 3
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Model ranking for models estimating age- and sex-specific survival and recapture probability
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Model
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ΔQAICc
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wQAICc
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k
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High density (1951–1964)
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.999
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25
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(age-sex*t/t) p(t)
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13.640
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0.001
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34
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(age-sex*t/sex*t) p(t)
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21.430
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40
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(t) p(t)
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125.470
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21
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(sex*t) p(t)
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137.080
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30
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Low density (1993–1999)
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.928
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13
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(age-sex*t/t) p(t)
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5.690
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0.054
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17
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(age-sex*t/sex*t) p(t)
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7.890
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0.018
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22
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(t) p(t)
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125.440
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9
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(sex*t) p(t)
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126.950
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14
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| Effects of time (t), age (age-juvenile/adult), and sex (sex) on the probability of survival () and recapture (p) in southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (wQAICc), the relative change in AICc score (ΔQAICc), and number of parameters (k) based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.3559. |
Table 4
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Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability as a function of environmental stochasticity
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Model
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ΔQAICc
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wQAICc
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k
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High density (1951–1964)
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(age-pup*t/pup*t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.804
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35
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(age-mother*t/mother*t) p(t)
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2.830
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0.195
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34
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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16.950
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30
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(age-pup*t/t) p(t)
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24.810
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34
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(age-mother*t/t) p(t)
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24.820
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34
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Low density (1993–1999)
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(age-mother*t/mother*t)p(t)
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0.000
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0.767
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24
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(mother*t)p(t)
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2.380
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0.233
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18
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(age-pup*t/pup*t)p(t)
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17.060
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22
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(age-t/t)p(t)
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32.800
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17
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(age-pup*t/t)p(t)
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40.820
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21
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| Effects of age (age-juvenile/adult), time (t), and environmental conditions represented by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during the newly weaned seal's foraging period (Jan-Oct) (pup), and during a mother's pre-partum foraging period (Jan-Oct of the previous year) (mother) on the probability of survival () of southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (wQAICc), the relative change in AICc score (ΔQAICc), and number of parameters (k) based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.3861. |
Table 5
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Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability as a function of population density
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Model
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ΔQAICc
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wQAICc
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k
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High density (1951–1964)
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(age-density/t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.894
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14
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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4.270
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0.106
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18
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(t) p(t)
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14.860
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0.001
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13
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(age-dlag/t) p(t)
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16.960
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16
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(age-density/density) p(t)
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21.410
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14
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Low density (1993–1999)
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(age-density/t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.399
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10
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(age-t/t) p(t)
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0.720
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0.278
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13
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(age-dlag/t) p(t)
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0.960
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0.246
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10
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(age-density/density) p(t)
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3.310
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0.076
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10
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(age-dlag/dlag) p(t)
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17.940
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10
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| Effects of age (age-juvenile/adult), time (t), density of breeding females (density), and density of breeding females lagged by one year (dlag) on the probability of survival () in southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (wQAICc), the relative change in AICc score (ΔQAICc), and number of parameters (k), based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.7122. |
Table 6
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Model ranking for models estimating age-specific survival and recapture probability as a function of environmental stochasticity and population density
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Model
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ΔQAICc
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wQAICc
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k
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High density (1951–1964)
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(age-mother*t/mother*t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.995
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19
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(age-pup*t/pup*t) p(t)
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11.300
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0.004
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24
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(mother*t) p(t)
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14.330
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0.001
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21
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(pup*t) p(t)
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16.130
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21
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(age-density/t) p(t)
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17.810
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15
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Low density (1993–1999)
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(age-mother*t/mother*t) p(t)
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0.000
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0.551
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22
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(mother*t) p(t)
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1.640
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0.242
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17
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(age-t/mother*t) p(t)
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1.970
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0.206
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23
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(age-pup*t/pup*t) p(t)
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13.050
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0.001
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20
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(age-density+mother*t/density+mother*t) p(t)
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14.200
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12
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| Effects of age (age-juvenile/adult), time (t), density of breeding females (density), density of breeding females lagged by one year (dlag) and environmental conditions (SOI during a newly weaned seal's foraging period [pup] and during a mother's pre-partum foraging period [mother] on the probability of survival () of southern elephant seals during the high- (1951–1964) and low-density (1993–1999) eras. Models are ranked according to their Akaike weights (wQAICc), the relative change in AICc score (ΔQAICc), and number of parameters (k), based on an inflation factor (ĉ) of 1.7122. |
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